The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Food Systems

Prices of fuel, fertilizers, and food are rising and this feeds into a new worrisome crisis: the world is facing catastrophic hunger for hundreds of millions of people. The United Nations World Food Program warned us already about it in November. Five months later, the food industry’s problems are continuing to significantly deepen — this time because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — a war that is having a global impact on the food systems. The following text is taking a look at Ukraine in the context of its role as one of the world’s key production regions for food grains (rice, wheat, corn, and soy).

Food security is vital for a nation’s security. But in the case of Ukraine, the country used to provide food security on a global scale and the war there may result in an even worse shortage of food and disruptions of supply.

The main reason why the war in Ukraine has devastating outcomes on a local and a global level is that the Black Sea region is a vital agricultural hub and Ukraine is one of the world’s breadbaskets. Over the past five years, Ukraine and Russia have together accounted for nearly 30% of the exports of the world’s wheat, 17% of corn, 32% of barley, a crucial source of animal feed, and 75% of sunflower seed oil, important cooking oil in some parts of the world.

Ukraine alone is one of the main world exporters of grains (mainly corn and wheat). The country produces and trades also with animal and vegetable oils, sunflower seeds, rye, and oats. In 2021 Ukraine was the second largest supplier of grains for the European Union and a large food supplier for low and middle-income countries in Asia and Africa.

Since the beginning of the war, the export of food both from Ukraine and Russia has been suspended. From Russia — because of economic sanctions and from Ukraine — because it has been cut off physically. Russia has blocked the Black Sea for exports, and Ukraine lacks enough rail cars to transport food overland. To make things worse, as the war is happening at the end of the winter, Ukrainian farmers are most likely going to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons.

This war is having a domino effect on so many layers. It is threatening the security of countries that are already struggling to feed their populations as well as endangering the operations of industries all around the world dependent on agriculture supplies. Just one example: the sustainable aquaculture that uses food sources from Ukraine to produce salmon feeds. And it’s not just them.

We already saw that the war in Ukraine has a worrisome effect on fuel and electricity prices too — factors that also impact the food supply. That, coupled with extreme weather events in different parts of the world due to climate change is a recipe for a global crisis.

NYTimes authors Jack Nicas and Megan Konar summarize the current state of food globally. European fertilizer plants are significantly cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on fertilizer, threatening the size of the next harvests. Due to severe flooding, China is facing its worst wheat crop in decades, and as a result, is planning to buy much more of the world’s diminishing supplies. India, which ordinarily exports a small amount of wheat, has already seen foreign demand more than triple compared with last year.

The longer the conflict continues, the longer innocent people will keep suffering and the bigger food insecurity worldwide may be caused.

I pray for Ukraine and its brave people.